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machoasasquatcho
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predictions based on a comparable movies
Oct 18th, 2016 at 12:27pm
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I think Dr.Strange is not that great of deal. If it does Ant-Man numbers (best case scenario), you're only looking at a 1.6 multiplier.


There is a movie that is one of the least held in this game, which has a comparable movie (similar feel) that opened around the same day, with the same star, 10 years ago. If this movie can replicate that performance you're looking at a 6.15 multiplier!!
  
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machoasasquatcho
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Re: predictions based on a comparable movies
Reply #1 - Oct 18th, 2016 at 5:13pm
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I don't believe Fantastic Beasts will put up Harry Potter Numbers. I think it will do Percy Jackson or Narnia 3 Numbers. In which case its way overpriced.
  
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The EZ1
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Re: predictions based on a comparable movies
Reply #2 - Oct 18th, 2016 at 10:02pm
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I think Dr.Strange is a real wildcard. It doesn't have the same feel as the other Marvel movies to me.
  

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Keith
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Re: predictions based on a comparable movies
Reply #3 - Oct 19th, 2016 at 7:58am
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Feels like we have 3 spin-offs of blockbusters this season instead of outright sequel/prequels. It should definitely make things interesting. WB is really pushing the connection between Potter and Beasts though (the Potter IMAX 3 day thing). There was also the IMAX sneak of some of the Strange footage across the country... I'm not even sure the Studio's are 100% on how to market these.
  
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Re: predictions based on a comparable movies
Reply #4 - Oct 19th, 2016 at 12:01pm
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I'm truly amazed at the lack of sequels this season. I bet it's been years and years since a lineup looked like this.
  

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machoasasquatcho
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Re: predictions based on a comparable movies
Reply #5 - Nov 27th, 2016 at 9:19am
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machoasasquatcho wrote on Oct 18th, 2016 at 12:27pm:
I think Dr.Strange is not that great of deal. If it does Ant-Man numbers (best case scenario), you're only looking at a 1.6 multiplier.


Dr. Strange pulled a 1.75... a little higher than my initial prediction, but not by much. I'm glad I put my money elsewhere. Trolls worked out well for me! I'm curious why Sing! is so much higher than Trolls. Is it really more anticipated?
  
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Re: predictions based on a comparable movies
Reply #6 - Nov 27th, 2016 at 12:49pm
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machoasasquatcho wrote on Nov 27th, 2016 at 9:19am:
I'm curious why Sing! is so much higher than Trolls. Is it really more anticipated?


Release date advantage.  Although Sing's first two days of grosses won't count in the game which takes a little of the advantage away.
  
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machoasasquatcho
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Re: predictions based on a comparable movies
Reply #7 - Nov 28th, 2016 at 11:45am
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If Moana follows Frozen's pattern, its on track to pull in about 150, giving it a 2.06x... Since its currently second most held movie (released so far) will that be enough for all those players? I guess we shall see.
  
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magicdreamer
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Re: predictions based on a comparable movies
Reply #8 - Nov 28th, 2016 at 4:32pm
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Actually since the game only uses weekend grosses, if you use better than Frozen drops of 50% and 20% you will only get to about $131 for an 1.80 ROFP.  We are most likely looking at an ROFP of about 1.70 using close to Frozen drops.  My guess is that it holds less than Frozen though.
  
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